10 Friday AM Reads
My end-of-week morning Miami/Art Basel reads:
• How Much Will the Stock Market Fall in 2026? What will the worst drawdown look like? Going back to 1928, the average peak-to-trough drawdown in a given calendar year is -16%. Drawdowns were worse than average in 2025 (-18.9%), 2022 (-25.4%) and 2020 (-33.9%). Peak-to-trough drawdowns were better than average in 2024 (-8.5%), 2023 (-10.3%) and 2021 (-5.2%). (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• The End of the Lunch Bowl Era: Diners have bowl fatigue, with some deriding them as ‘slop.’ Even Chipotle’s founder has moved on by starting a sandwich chain. (Bloomberg free)
• Basic statistical flaws of bitcoin’s four-year price ‘cycle’ The idea that BTC follows a four-year cycle at all originates from the cadence of its coinbase reward halving every four years. Because the supply of BTC issuance programmatically decreases every four years, it is easy to invent a statistical model about that halving’s supposed effect on price. However, this ignores the reality of financial markets where millions of investors discount future prices based on all presently known information. (Protos)
• Game Theory Explains How Algorithms Can Drive Up Prices: Recent findings reveal that even simple pricing algorithms can make things more expensive. (Wired)
• Everything Is Not Fine in the Art World: Auction headlines offer a picture of health that hides a body in crisis. (Hyperallergic)
• The Price of Remission: When I was diagnosed with cancer, I set out to understand why a single pill of Revlimid cost the same as a new iPhone. I’ve covered high drug prices as a reporter for years. What I discovered shocked even me. (ProPublica)
• It’s their job to keep AI from destroying everything. Spoiler: the nine-person team works for Anthropic. What happens when just a handful of employees at one of the world’s leading AI companies — one that nearly tripled its valuation to $183 billion in less than a year, and is now valued in the range of $350 billion — are given the blanket task of figuring out how the ultra-disruptive technology is going to impact society? (The Verge)
• Would You Track Your Stools Like You Track Your Steps? Equipped with sensors and AI, smart toilets promise to monitor hydration, gut health and even cancer risk — if users can get past the ick factor. (Bloomberg free)
• Will new physics affect our Universe’s far future? We have a picture of how and when it will all come to an end. These three big ideas could still profoundly change how our cosmos evolves. (Big Think)
• The NBA Superstar Who’s Kobe, Steph, Wilt and Jordan—All Rolled Into One: Nikola Jokic, the three-time NBA MVP, is having the best season of his entire career. He’s also surpassing some of the best players of all time in several statistical categories. (Wall Street Journal)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder of JPMorgan Alternative Asset Management. The JPM group manages $35 billion in external hedge fund solutions for institutional and high-net worth investors. He also heads the Portfolio Management Group, and is a member of the JPMAAM Investment Committee.
Will Netflix be the winner of the Warner Bros. Discovery contest?
Source: Sherwood
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