The Machine Learning “Advent Calendar” Day 6: Decision Tree Regressor

During the first days of this Machine Learning Advent Calendar, we explored models based on distances. Today, we switch to a completely different way of learning: Decision Trees.
With a simple one-feature dataset, we can see how a tree chooses its first split. The idea is always the same: if humans can guess the split visually, then we can rebuild the logic step by step in Excel.
By listing all possible split values and computing the MSE for each one, we identify the split that reduces the error the most. This gives us a clear intuition of how a Decision Tree grows, how it makes predictions, and why the first split is such a crucial step.

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