Who’s Gonna Win?

⋅5 de novembro de 2024

Over the past few weeks, clients, reporters, friends, and family have frequently asked this.

Who’s Gonna Win? is a loaded question for anyone. We all live in our happy little bias bubbles. I work in NYC, a Democratic stronghold, but I also live in Nassau County, which leans GOP.

Any strong opinion as to the outcome is a mix of selective perception, bias, and wishful thinking.

I have been warning readers that polls are notoriously unreliable and that the media’s fixation on them is poor journalism, lazy, and uninformative. The news media has not served us well this cycle; Jay Rosen, the NYU professor and media critic, describes a more useful focus as “not the odds, but the stakes.”

Rather than merely opine a preference, let’s war game a range of outcomes.

Before buying, selling, or shorting a stock, before increasing your equity exposure or moving to cash, I suggest making the counterargument: What is the person on the other side of your trade thinking? Each side believes its position is correct—why? What are the best arguments Pro & Con, the strongest claims, Bull & Bear?

Picture each trade as winning AND losing – why do you imagine it succeeded or failed? What are you anticipating? What don’t you know? It is a useful moot court exercise, no matter the subject, to help you become more fully informed about the probabilities of success and the nuances in any position.

We can do the same in this race. Imagine both candidates winning (or losing) and crafting an explanation for why. I can imagine at least ten factors for each candidate leading to their victory.

Why Trump Wins (in order of importance)

Inflation ran amuck this admin (not during his admin)
Illegal Immigration: Biden-Harris did nothing to stop it!
Economy during Trump’s first term was great!
Reduce Tax burden and cut onerous regulations
Harris is untested; she has no accomplishments;
Candidate did not go through the primary vetting process
Biden remains unpopular (37% approval)
State-level control of abortion decisions
Ukraine is an expensive folly; War in Gaza is a threat to Israel
Afghanistan pull-out was a debacle

What does this scenario look like? Trump ran a dark campaign that resonated with his core supporters. The two assassination attempts gave him a heroic aura, the candidate of destiny. Lots of blue-collar support. The “vibesession” is still fresh in voters’ minds.

This all shows up as cracks in the Dem’s blue wall in the Midwest; the Trump campaign needs only to eke out a victory in Michigan and hold onto North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, and they capture 277 EC votes and the White House; add in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and it’s a sweep at 312 electoral college votes, and likely both Houses in Congress.

This electoral college map goes this way:

Source: 270 to Win

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Why Harris Wins (in order of importance)

Reproductive Rights (Roe v Wade overturn)
January 6th was an attempt to overturn a free and fair election; violated his oath
More tax cuts for corporations and billionaires
Trump is uniquely unfit for office (another chaos presidency?)
78-year-old candidate is less vigorous + showing signs of cognitive decline
Voting rights need to be protected
Trump will pack federal courts with even more right-wing ideologues
Prior admin did a terrible job managing the pandemic; US had much worse outcomes than other countries
Convicted felon running to avoid jail, not to do the people’s business (doesn’t care about solving problems –e.g., stopped an immigration bill to prevent opponent “win”)
Trump left office as the least popular president in history (29% approval); his cabinet mostlyrefused to endorse him

What does this scenario look like? Harris ran an optimistic, upbeat campaign; she has a historic gender gap in her favor and lots of new registered voters. Her biggest advantages were 1) Raised a record-breaking sum of campaign dollars; 2) Inheriting a strong infrastructure from Biden, then making it even better. The get out the vote effort will make a difference in swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and make the southern swing states of Georgia, North Carolina Nevada and Arizona competitive.

The Harris campaign needs to only hold onto Dem’s blue wall in the Midwest and they capture 270 EC votes and the White House. If more things break her way, throw in Georgia and Nevada for 292 EC votes. And if North Carolina and Arizona show up, you get a sweep at 319 electoral college votes, and at least the House of Representatives.

This electoral college map goes this way

Source: 270 to Win